@article{oai:rekihaku.repo.nii.ac.jp:00002832,
 author = {中塚, 武 and NAKATSUKA, Takeshi},
 journal = {国立歴史民俗博物館研究報告, Bulletin of the National Museum of Japanese History},
 month = {Feb},
 note = {application/pdf, 樹木年輪セルロースの酸素同位体比は，夏の降水量や気温の鋭敏な指標として，過去の水稲生産量の経年変動の推定に利用できる。実際，近世の中部日本の年輪酸素同位体比は，近江や甲斐の水稲生産量の文書記録と高い相関を示し，前近代の水稲生産が夏の気候によって大きく支配されていたことが分かる。この関係性を紀元前500年以降の弥生時代と古墳時代の年輪酸素同位体比に当てはめ，本州南部の水稲生産量の経年変動ポテンシャルを推定し，さらに生産―備蓄―消費―人口の4要素からなる差分方程式を使って，同時期の人口の変動を計算した。ここでは農業技術や農地面積の変化が考慮されていないので，人口の長期変動は議論できないが，紀元前1世紀の冷湿化に伴う人口の急減や，紀元前3—4世紀，紀元2世紀，6世紀の気候の数十年周期変動の振幅拡大に伴って飢饉や難民が頻発した可能性などが指摘でき，集落遺跡データや文献史料と対比することが可能である。, Oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) of tree-ring cellulose, a novel proxy sensitive to summer precipitation and temperature, can be utilized to estimate past inter-annual variations in paddy rice productivity. In fact, tree-ring δ18O in central Japan shows high correlations with documentary records on paddy rice productions in Ohmi and Kai regions during early modern era, indicating that premodern paddy rice productions were seriously influenced by summer climate. I applied this relationship to tree-ring δ18O time-series in central Japan during Yayoi and Kofun eras since 500 BCE in order to calculate inter-annual potential variations in paddy rice productivity and human population in southern Honshu using differential equations consisting of four variables (agricultural production, storage, consumption, and population). Although long-term variations in population cannot be discussed here because of the lack of changes in agricultural technology and rice paddy areas in the equation, their middle-and short-term variations are illustrated clearly as the decrease in population due to rapid wetting and cooling in 1st century BCE and the frequent occurrence of famines and refugees in 3rd–4th centuries BCE and 2nd and 6th centuries CE caused by enhancements of multi-decadal climate variability, those are comparable with archeological evidences and historical literature.},
 pages = {317--336},
 title = {[論文] 年輪酸素同位体比を用いた弥生・古墳時代の気候・農業生産・人口の変動シミュレーション},
 volume = {231},
 year = {2022},
 yomi = {ナカツカ, タケシ}
}